After rebooting the boxes involved it seemed to work.
What prompted me to reboot was that some of the servers over the time I was out of the office seemed to have gone down. So after making sure all the servers were back up and in order things started working again.
Just this weekend we had a power outage and the servers were displaying the same behavior. Clients got 403 messages and the event viewers were saying something to the effect of "valid cookies aren't valid" so I rebooted all servers to make sure things came up in the correct order. Still didn't work except that the OWA service took a long time to start up, once it was started, the user no longer received a 403 error after they logged in.
Thanks for the help Jim. I'm not 100% sure this was the cause, but so far as my experiences have been both issues were the same, with same solution.
General reboot order:
- DCs
- ADFS servers (FS then FSP)
- Apps